Real Estate Price Indices in Canada and Quebec

Measuring real estate price trends precisely and rigorously is a significant methodological challenge for mortgage market professionals. The simple average sale price, though easy to calculate and widely publicized, can be misleading: if a given month sees many luxury property sales, the average rises without individual property values having actually changed. This is why specialized indices were developed to provide a more reliable and meaningful measure of price evolution. For Quebec mortgage brokers, understanding these different indices is essential for correctly informing clients, validating municipal and professional appraisals, and anticipating market trends in each region.

MLS HPI (MLS Home Price Index)

Hedonic index published monthly by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). It adjusts sale prices for property characteristics (living area, construction age, geographic location, property type, number of bedrooms and bathrooms) to isolate pure price variation from composition effects. The index is calculated for each local market and available by property type (single-family, condominium, row house).

Teranet-National Bank Index

Index based on the repeat-sales method: it compares the sale price of the same property across successive transactions recorded at the land registry. This approach completely eliminates composition bias since it only compares identical properties. The composite index covers 11 Canadian metropolitan markets, including Montreal and Quebec City. Its main limitation is a publication delay of several months.

Regional Data in Quebec: Centris and APCIQ

In Quebec, the most comprehensive and widely consulted regional data source is the Centris platform, operated by APCIQ (Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Quebec). APCIQ publishes detailed monthly statistical reports for each Quebec region, including completed transactions, median price by property type, active listings, the listings-to-sales ratio (key market balance indicator), and average days on market. Data is broken down by property type: single-family, condominium, and income property (2-to-5-unit plex). Quarterly 'Market Barometer' reports offer in-depth analysis of trends and outlook for each regional market, including analyst commentary and trend charts.

Recent Quebec Regional Trends

Quebec real estate markets display very distinct dynamics across regions. The Montreal metropolitan area (CMA) experienced dramatic price increases between 2019 and 2022, with the median single-family home price rising from approximately $350,000 to over $525,000, an appreciation of nearly 50% in three years. The 2022-2023 correction was moderate in the Montreal area, around 5 to 8%, well below that observed in the Greater Toronto Area (15 to 20%). Quebec City offers a traditionally more stable market with accessible prices (median approximately $340,000 for single-family in 2024). Sherbrooke and Trois-Rivieres saw very significant price increases since 2020, driven by urban exodus from Montreal and remote work possibilities. Gatineau continues to benefit from Ottawa proximity and sustained fédéral public service demand, while Saguenay and peripheral regions offer the most affordable prices but with narrower and less liquid markets.

Index Limitations and Interpretation Cautions

Each index has methodological limitations that brokers must understand. Average price is biased by sales composition and does not reflect individual property value changes. MLS HPI, while sophisticated, can be influenced by data quality or coverage changes in certain regions. Teranet has a publication delay of several months and only covers major cities, excluding regional markets. Median price, while more robust than average since it splits sales into two equal halves, can also be affected by changes in the mix of properties sold. The savvy broker systematically cross-references multiple data sources and never relies on a single index for analysis and recommendations.

Strategic Usefulness for Mortgage Brokers

Price indices are strategically valuable broker tools on several levels. First, they validate property appraisals by comparing the client's proposed purchase price to local market trends, essential when submitting files to lenders. Second, they help anticipate price trends for advising clients on optimal purchase or refinancing timing. Third, they facilitate comparisons between regional markets to guide buyers toward regions offering the best value for their budget and needs. Fourth, they support discussions with certified appraisers and lenders regarding market value and loan-to-value ratios. The broker who masters this data and presents it clearly to clients positions themselves as a true local market expert.