Planning My Renewal Based on the Rate Cycle

Timing strategy to align your renewal with market trends

Market action3 min readFebruary 11, 2026
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Mortgage renewal is one of the most strategic moments in a borrower's life. In Canada, most mortgages have a five-year term, meaning you will need to renew several times over the amortization period. How you align your renewal with the interest rate cycle can significantly affect the total cost of your mortgage. Your current lender will send you a renewal offer at least 21 days before the term expires, in accordance with the fédéral Code of Conduct for Mortgage Lenders. However, most lenders allow you to lock in a rate 90 to 120 days before maturity. This window is strategic: if rates are favourable, you can lock them in early. If the trend is downward, you might wait for a better rate. A mortgage broker licensed by the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) can guide you through this analysis. They will compare offers from multiple lenders and recommend the best time to act based on the rate cycle, your current term, and your medium-term financial goals.

Mortgage Renewal: A Strategic Moment Not to Be Overlooked

In Canada, the vast majority of mortgages are structured with one-to-five-year terms, with the five-year term being the most common. At each term maturity, the borrower must renew their mortgage, which presents an opportunity to renegotiate conditions, switch lenders, and adapt to the current rate environment. According to the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC), too many borrowers simply sign their current lender's renewal offer without shopping around, potentially leaving thousands of dollars on the table.

Understanding Interest Rate Cycles

Interest rates move in cycles influenced by the Bank of Canada's monetary policy, inflation, economic growth, and global conditions. A complete cycle typically includes a rising phase (monetary tightening to fight inflation), a plateau (stable rates during an observation period), and a declining phase (easing to stimulate the economy). Recognizing the current position in the cycle is essential for optimizing your renewal strategy.

  • Rising phase: rates are climbing progressively — a fixed rate provides protection against future increases
  • Plateau: rates are stable — carefully compare fixed and variable, the spread between them is a key indicator
  • Declining phase: rates are falling — a variable rate may let you benefit from reductions over time
  • Uncertainty: direction is unclear — a shorter term (one to three years) offers flexibility to reposition sooner

The Rate Hold Window: Your Strategic Tool

Most Canadian lenders offer the ability to lock in (hold) a mortgage rate 90 to 120 days before the renewal or funding date. This rate guarantee works like a financial option: if rates rise during the hold period, you keep your guaranteed rate. If rates fall, several lenders offer an automatic or on-request downward adjustment. Your mortgage broker can lock in a rate with multiple lenders simultaneously to maximize your chances of getting the most competitive rate at the time of finalization.

Renewal Strategies Based on the Rate Context

  1. Assess your current situation: Note your current rate, remaining balance, term maturity date, and financial goals. Do you need flexibility? Do you want to pay down faster? These factors will influence your choice of term and rate type.
  2. Analyze the position in the cycle: Review recent Bank of Canada announcements and major bank forecasts. If rates appear to have peaked, a variable rate or shorter term could be advantageous. If rates are low and likely to rise, a five-year fixed rate offers certainty.
  3. Lock in a competitive rate early: As soon as you spot a competitive rate (90 to 120 days before maturity), ask your broker to lock it in. You can still get an adjustment if rates drop further, but you'll be protected against increases.
  4. Compare at least three offers: Don't limit yourself to your current lender. An AMF-licensed broker has access to dozens of lenders including banks, Desjardins caisses, trust companies, and alternative lenders. The rate difference between the best and worst offer can represent thousands of dollars over a five-year term.
  5. Consider a lender transfer: At renewal, you can transfer your mortgage to another lender without penalty. The new lender typically covers the appraisal and legal fees. This is a particularly attractive option if your current lender isn't offering a competitive rate.

The Hybrid Approach: Combining Fixed and Variable

Some Canadian lenders offer hybrid products that combine a fixed-rate portion and a variable-rate portion within the same mortgage. This approach allows you to partially benefit from rate decreases while maintaining a degree of stability. For example, you could place 60% of your mortgage at a fixed rate and 40% at a variable rate. During periods of uncertainty in the rate cycle, this diversification strategy can be wise. Discuss the ideal proportion with your broker based on your risk tolerance and current market conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions

When should I start planning my mortgage renewal?
Ideally, start exploring your options four to six months before your term expires. Most lenders allow you to lock in a rate 90 to 120 days in advance. This gives you time to compare offers, negotiate, and make an informed decision without pressure.
Should I accept my current lender's renewal offer?
Not necessarily. Your lender's initial renewal offer is rarely the best available on the market. According to the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC), shopping your renewal can save you thousands of dollars. A mortgage broker compares offers from dozens of lenders for you.
Can I switch lenders at renewal?
Yes, renewal is the ideal time to switch lenders without a prepayment penalty. The transfer is generally free if the new lender absorbs the costs. Your broker can manage the entire transfer process, including the appraisal and legal formalities.
How does the rate cycle influence my choice between fixed and variable?
At the start of a rising cycle, a fixed rate protects you against future increases. At the end of a rising cycle or the start of a declining one, a variable rate may let you benefit from upcoming decreases. A hybrid rate (part fixed, part variable) offers a compromise. Your broker will analyze the current position in the cycle to advise you.
What happens if I don't renew at maturity?
If you don't respond to the renewal offer, most lenders will automatically place you in a one-year open term at a higher rate. This rate is disadvantageous. It is always better to act proactively, even if you are unsure of your choice, to avoid this default situation.
Can my broker lock in a rate while I wait?
Yes, most lenders offer a rate hold of 90 to 120 days. If rates drop during this period, several lenders offer a downward adjustment. If rates rise, your guaranteed rate is protected. It's a risk-free strategy your broker can put in place for you.

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Educational information only. This does not constitute financial advice under the Act Respecting the Distribution of Financial Products and Services (LDPSF). Consult an AMF-certified mortgage broker before making any financial decision.

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